There were nay-sayers around a decade ago when the academy expanded the best-picture list for the Oscars.
But it has undoubtedly made the Oscars a more entertaining event to watch and it’s allowed for a more comprehensive look at quality films throughout the year.
Let’s have a quick look at this category – and others– and which films might get favored and snubbed and compare them to the Vegas betting odds around the world.
2020 marked a new era for the SAG awards. Parasite won the Best Ensemble Acting Award, making it the first subtitled, foreign film to ever win. But can it do the unthinkable and win the Oscar for Best Picture? It just might! At +200 it is listed by the bookmakers in Vegas as the second most likely film to win the prestigious award.
No, snub here. ‘Parasite’ is getting it’s due respect – even if it doesn’t win. But I have a feeling, just like these Oscars Betting Picks that Parasite will win the Oscar for International Film, then you have to wonder if it would actually win both categories, Best International Film and Best Film? I have to think, not likely.
Ok. Moving on to the odds on favorite.
The top honors at the time of writing this now go to ‘1917’. This is extremely interesting because the film is now the clear favorite at -165 – meaning it’s so highly favored that if you were to bet, you return significantly less on the dollar than your risk amount. Why is this so interesting, you might ask? Well, before the Golden Globes, 1917 was a massive +1400 underdog. But last year’s winner Green Book was a +300 underdog to Roma, which was a MASSIVE -280 favorite to win.
So, if Parasite wins International Film and therefore is less likely to get double-kudos, then that would leave Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at +500 (5 to 1) to have the most potential to be an upset winner. As much as ‘Joker’ is deserving, it’s listed way back at +2500 because, for some reason, the academy just won’t embrace Batman movies … remember Dark Knight … total snub. That said, Joaquin Phoenix is -2000 to win Best Actor, so he’ll get his due. It should be noted that these odds imply a 95.2% probability of victory. And the Academy will probably consider this high enough praise for a movie based on a comic book character.
So that brings us back to Once Upon A Time, I think it will definitely outweigh The Irishman, which is a NetFlix release. Sure, It’s not as big of a deal after the success of Roma, but still … I don’t see a NetFlix release winning Best Picture just yet … and the 60-1 odds confirm this notion. Once Upon A Time … originally lead the odds boards as the Best Picture favorite. Its success at the Golden Globes thrust it into position to as the odds favorite, but since 1917 got so much praise at the SAG awards, that picture sky-rocketed to the top. It’s a fickle beast, the eyes of the academy and the public. But don’t count the star-studded Quentin Tarantino comedic period piece out. At +500, there is some real value in this one taking the upset win over 1917. Moviegoers absolutely loved the story of Rick Dalton and his Hollywood struggles.
Marriage Story is also on the short-list of favorites. Although it’s way back at +10000, along with Jojo Rabbit. It has double the probability of films like Little Women and Ford vs. Ferrari. Again, Marriage Story doesn’t seem like a viable pick to win, but Adam Driver did a fantastic job and he’s next in line on the Best Actor award list at +600, but can he overcome Mr. Phoenix’s epic portrayal of Auther Fleck?
What about the best Actress?
Although I really think it should go to Saoirse Ronan, Renee Zellweger is sitting at -2000 to win for her over the rainbow portrayal of Judy Garland. Scarlette Johansson is next in line at +1200 – tied with Charlize Theron for Bombshell. I guess I’m rooting for Saoirse because I feel like she’s been rocking it for a few years now and has been snubbed in years past.
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